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Economic Forecasts & Trends • Giving Back • Matthew Gardner • Monthly Newsletters • Mortgages • April 25, 2022

Update: Global Influences on the Housing Market & Interest Rates

by Jill Langer

 

 

A lot has happened in our world since the first of the year, specifically the rise in inflation and the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine. These factors can influence consumers and affect the housing and financial markets. Additionally, global unrest has had a clear influence on interest rates, driving them back down after a 1-point increase since November 2021. 

Please listen to the latest video update from Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner (link below) that was released this Monday, 3/7/22. He provides updated insights and projections for the housing market and interest rates for 2022 and beyond, some of which have been adjusted since his January forecast. 

It is always my goal to help keep my clients informed and empower strong decisions. At Windermere, we are so fortunate to have Matthew in our corner providing such expertise to help us help our clients strategically navigate the environment. Please reach out if you have any questions or if you would like to discuss how your goals relate to the market. 

 

Matthew Gardner Video on Mortgage Interest Rates

 

As Matthew stated in the video above, it is important that we keep interest rates in perspective. The chart below illustrates where rates are hovering today and where he and other experts expect to see them by the end of the year and how that affects monthly mortgage payments (principal & interest only). 

 

We also have included the 30-year average rate to show the historical significance of today’s low rates. Even though rates have come up 1 point since the absolute bottom level in January 2021, they are still much lower than the historical average, and they are helping to offset affordability challenges. 

 

However, at some point, rates could reach 5% which could put downward pressure on prices like the last time rates reached that level in the latter part of 2018. It is all about how the monthly payment pans out based on the rate. The variable effect of rates on prices will find its balance based on buyer appetites for monthly payment amounts. 

 

 

 

 

 

You’re invited to our annual Paper Shredding Event & Food Drive. We partner with Confidential Data Disposal to provide a safe, eco-friendly way to reduce your paper trail and help prevent identity theft.
 
Saturday, April 9th, 10AM to 2PM*
4211 Alderwood Mall Blvd, Lynnwood
Bring your sensitive documents to be professionally destroyed on-site. Limit 10 file boxes per visitor.
 
This is a paper-only event. No x-rays, electronics, recyclables, or any other materials.
 
We will also be collecting non-perishable food and cash donations to benefit Volunteers of America Western Washington food banks. Donations are not required, but are appreciated. Hope to see you there!
 
*Or until the trucks are full

Gardner Reports • Giving Back • Matthew Gardner • Monthly Newsletters • Selling Homes • Windermere Foundation • April 25, 2022

Aligning With The Right Broker Matters More Than Ever

by Jill Langer

2022 has had an incredible eventful start in our local real estate market. In January, the average list-to-sale price ratio (the percentage a house sells for in comparison to the list price) in King County was 105% and in Snohomish County it was 106%. This is in conjunction with complete year-over-year median price appreciation (the last 12 months of price growth averaged and compared to the previous 12 months of price growth) of 15% in King County and 23% in Snohomish County. In fact, 59% of homeowners in King County have more than 50% home equity and 55% of homeowners in Snohomish County have over 50% home equity.

With that said, how does one navigate successfully transitioning that equity to their next move, and who do they choose to help them with the job? With inventory at an all-time low and interest rates still hovering around 4%, buyer demand is high. There is no denying that homes sell quickly in this environment and oftentimes for over list price due to multiple offers. There are many different business models available to consumers when selecting who they align with to help them make this very important move. There are brokerages that will offer an up-front rebate on the commission and there are full-service brokerages, with a lot in between.

Before I highlight what a full-service brokerage, like Windermere North, has to offer a seller I want to show you some numbers rooted in seller results. In 2021, my office, Windermere North, outperformed the market – we sold homes faster and at a higher return!

Even as we track our statistics so far in 2022, according to NWMLS data, my office’s average list-to-sale price ratio for King and Snohomish Counties combined, including both residential and condo sales, was 114% and 4 days on the market. This compares to the average market results of 105% and 19 days on the market.

Our approach involves a strategic home preparation process, detailed price analysis, and keen negotiations. You might ask what type of negotiations happen when a seller is reviewing a stack of offers; actually, more than you know. Sifting through the terms of offers and vetting the buyers through rapport-building with their broker and lender helps us unearth who the most qualified buyer is to get into contract with. This takes extra time and skilled communication, but as you can see, these extra steps pay off for our sellers.

We also understand that getting a home ready for market can be a daunting task, but the upside is too measurable to ignore. We help our clients identify a punch-list of prep items and match them up with concierge-level service providers to help complete the work. Even if our sellers are limited in funds to prep their home, we have funds available for no up-front costs. Please reach out if you think this would be helpful.

Then the merchandising comes in (depending on the house): staging, professional photography, video, floorplans, print materials, and public exposure is planned and executed. Our listings hit the market perfectly positioned for buyers to see themselves living there and we invest in this on behalf of our sellers. We help connect the emotional dots that invoke buyers’ lifestyle goals resulting in high returns for our sellers.

Lastly, perspective is key! Markets shift, ebbing and flowing. Pricing a home is strategic and requires analysis of the recent sales, historical seasonality, and current market trends. This research is done sifting through data, but also with intangible outreach to fellow brokers inquiring about their experiences and gleaning conclusions. Also, physically touring the inventory, whether I’m showing buyers or walking through to see for myself, helps me understand how a home measures up and what buyers are looking for. All of these steps are over-and-above the norm and help contribute to the results my office is producing.

If you are considering a move, make sure you align yourself with a trusted advisor who is willing to put in the extra work to get you the best possible results. Navigating an extreme sellers’ market takes great skill and care to garner the best results. If done right, that skill and care will beat out any upfront discount a less-engaged broker will offer to win a listing. Make sure you consider the big picture, not just an immediate reward. Understand that who you choose to partner with to assist you with one of the biggest financial decisions a person ever makes is a very big deal. It is always my goal to help keep my clients well-informed and empower strong decisions. Please reach out if you think I can help you or someone you know, whether you are just curious about the market or you’re ready to make a move.

Continue reading →

Buying Homes • Mortgages • Selling Homes • February 14, 2022

What is a Bridge Loan?

by Jill Langer
A real estate agent talks to her client at her computer.

With so much in flux during the period between selling a home and buying a new one, short-term financing can provide some calm among the storm. With the fate of two properties up in the air, those who are selling a home will often look to secure a bridge loan to bridge the gap between the sale of their existing home and the purchase of a new one. So, is a bridge loan right for you? The following information is meant to help you decide whether it is a fitting solution.

What is a bridge loan?

Bridge loans have shorter terms—generally up to one year—than mortgages and often come with higher interest rates. Bridge loans allow buyers to borrow a portion of the equity in real estate they already own (usually their current primary residence) to use as a down payment on the purchase of a new residence. Borrowers will commonly package the two loans together, in which they borrow the difference between the amount they owe on their current home and a percentage of the home’s value (often 75% or 80%). Just like a home equity loan, a home equity line of credit (HELOC), or a mortgage, bridge loans are secured by your current home as collateral.

 

Two colleagues analyze mortgage paperwork.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Source: Natee Meepian

 

Bridge Loans: Pros

  • Once your home sells, you can use the proceeds to pay off the bridge loan, leaving you with only the mortgage for your new home.
  • Bridge loans can get you cash quickly to expedite the transition from one house to another.
  • With a bridge loan, you can expect a shorter application and loan-approval process than a typical mortgage.
  • A bridge loan offers you the opportunity to buy a new house before your current one sells. As a buyer, this allows you to make a contingency-free offer on a new house, meaning you can still make the purchase without having to sell your current home first. This can be a useful resource in a seller’s market, where sellers may view an offer without contingencies as favorable amongst the competition.

Bridge Loans: Cons

  • If your home doesn’t sell in the allotted term, you’ll be left with making payments on your current home’s mortgage, your new home’s mortgage, and the bridge loan.
  • Bridge loans usually come with higher interest rates than a typical mortgage and come with their own set of costs, including interest, as well as legal and administrative fees.
  • Having a low debt-to-income ratio, a solid credit score, and a considerable amount of equity in your current home are all required to secure a bridge loan, so qualifying may be out of reach for some homeowners.

Alternatives to Bridge Loans

Home equity loans, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and personal loans are all viable alternatives to bridge loans that can still create a pathway to purchasing your new home. Be sure to compare the costs associated with each line of financing before making your decision.

For more information on how to handle the transitory period between selling your current home and buying a new one, please reach out to me, here.

This article originally appears on the Windermere Real Estate Blog, here.

Buying Homes • Mortgages • February 14, 2022

The Different Types of Home Loans for Buyers

by Jill Langer
A woman sits down with her mortgage broker to look over different types of home loans.

Financing terms are the nuts and bolts of a successful home purchase. Once you’ve decided you’re ready to buy a house, it’s a matter of making the numbers work. So, which home loan is the right one for you? Knowing the different types of mortgage loans available to you will allow you to pinpoint the one that best fits your needs and is financially viable.

The Different Types of Home Loans for Buyers

Conventional Loans

Conventional loans are the most popular type of home loan issued to borrowers. Offered by private lenders, they are not backed by the government. Conventional mortgages divide into two subsets: conforming loans; which adhere to Federal Housing Financing Agency (FHFA) guidelines, and non-conforming loans; which do not. Due to the added risk taken on by the lender, non-conforming loans typically have higher rates. A jumbo loan is an example of a non-conforming loan, due to its loan amounts being higher than the amount limits laid out in the underwriting guidelines. The two most common conventional loans are 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages.

15-Year and 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages

The terms of your loan will drastically impact all aspects of your mortgage. With a 30-year mortgage, you’ll have lower monthly payments and a higher interest rate than you’d have with a 15-year mortgage, meaning you’ll pay more in interest over the life of the loan. With a 15-year mortgage, you’ll pay less interest, but you’ll have a higher monthly payment. Compared to a 30-year mortgage, a 15-year mortgage can save you money over the life of the loan, simply because you’re in debt for half the time; however, the higher monthly payments may be unaffordable for some.

 

A woman sits at a table signing her mortgage paperwork.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: guvendemir

 

Government-Backed Loans

Whereas conventional loans are not backed by a federal entity, there are several unconventional loans that are backed by the U.S. government. These unconventional loans can often provide a path to homeownership for borrowers who don’t have the credentials to qualify for a conventional loan.

FHA and USDA mortgages are two common types of government-backed loans. Instead of having to make a 20% down payment on a conventional loan to avoid private mortgage insurance (PMI), an FHA loan allows buyers to qualify for a mortgage with a down payment as little as 3.5%. USDA loans enable buyers to purchase a home with reduced interest rates. VA loans offer several benefits for active service personnel and veterans looking to buy a home, including not having to purchase mortgage insurance.

Fixed-Rate vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgages

Fixed-rate mortgages allow you to lock in a specified interest rate for the life of the loan. With an unchanging monthly mortgage payment, a fixed-rate mortgage makes financial planning easier. Adjustable-rate mortgages’ interest rates will go up and down based on market conditions. Many ARMs will start with a fixed-interest rate period followed by a variable interest rate until the loan amount is paid off. Keep in mind that a sudden change in your financial situation could make your monthly ARM payments unaffordable, which could result in a loan default.

Other Home Loans

There are other more niche financing options available for prospective home buyers. For example, a construction loan can be useful if you’re planning on building a home. Balloon mortgages and sub-prime mortgages can make homeownership feasible for those who aren’t financially prepared for the typical repayment structure of a mortgage. These loans, however, come with greater risks. Talk to a mortgage broker to understand the terms of these agreements before making a final decision.

This article originally appears on the Windermere Real Estate Blog, here.

Buying Homes • Community • Economic Forecasts & Trends • Giving Back • Matthew Gardner • Monthly Newsletters • Selling Homes • Windermere Foundation • February 14, 2022

Matthew Gardner’s 2022 Predictions

by Jill Langer

 
In January, my office hosted our 14th annual Economic Forecast Event with Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist. It was an hour-long presentation followed by lively Q & A that was packed with useful information to help guide us as we start the new year. Matthew journeyed the audience through a macro to micro approach, reflecting on all of the activity in 2021 and also analyzing future trends.

He started with a national overview of the economy overall and ended with a detailed accounting for King and Snohomish County housing markets, including some predictions. Below are some highlighted bullet points. Please reach out if you would like a digital copy of his PowerPoint and/or the link to the recording of his presentation.

National Economy:
The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth in 2021 was 3.9%, well above the long-term average of 2%. This indicates we are not in a recession and have recovered from the brief recession we experienced in the spring of 2020. A recession is defined by two consecutive quarters with declining GDP.

Matthew anticipates the U.S. to be back to full employment by the end 2022 after the fall-out of 2020 due to the pandemic shut-down.

Inflation:
Inflation peaked in Q4 of 2021 and is projected to start to slow as supply chain issues improve.  Certain industries such as used cars which are costing 25% more since February 2020 are having a huge influence on overall numbers. Food and energy prices are also volatile and affecting overall numbers.

U.S. Housing Market:
Improved supply chain and labor forces will increase the number of new builds, increasing inventory to help quench buyer demand. This will slow national year-over-year price growth to 6.5% in 2022.

Regional Economy:
Jobs are increasing and will recover from the spring 2020 fall-out twice as fast as the job losses we saw during the Great Recession of 2008. In fact, he expects local jobs to fully return by the end of 2022!

Our diverse economy which includes tech, aerospace, biotech, and manufacturing will help our overall economy thrive as we are not dependent on just one industry for a full recovery.

Mortgage Rates:
Mortgage rates are predicted to slowly rise in 2022. Matthew along with the National Mortgage Brokers Association, Fannie Mae, and the National Association of Realtors expect rates to end the year just under 4%. This is well below the long-term average of 7.5%!

Prices:
In 2021, prices were up 14% year-over-year in King County and 24% in Snohomish County. He predicts housing prices to rise 13% in King County and 14% in Snohomish County in 2022. This is well above the long-term average of 5.5% year-over-year!

The Work from Home phenomenon has had a huge influence on price growth in the suburbs. Many buyers have eliminated long commutes or are only having to drive into work a handful of days a month. This has driven many buyers to consider the suburban markets which is why the price growth in Snohomish County was much higher than King. Seattle saw a bit of a correction as this new lifestyle shift came to be. He anticipates 2022 to be kind to urban markets and a continued attraction to the suburbs.

In 2021, net in-migration in both King and Snohomish Counties was up, which is continuing to have a strong influence on buyer demand. In fact, new listings were up in 2021 over 2020; it was increased buyer demand that whittled down inventory levels and drove prices up.

Homeowner Equity:
Prices have been growing since 2012 and have had historic growth over the last two years. In King County, 59% of homeowners have 50% or more equity in their homes and in Snohomish County, 55% of homeowners have 50% or more home equity.

This uptick in home equity and the Work from Home shift has reduced the average tenure a homeowner spends living in their home to just shy of 7 years in 2021 from 10 years just two years ago. This is another indicator of buyer demand.

Are we Headed Towards a Housing Bubble?
Simply put, no!  Even with forbearance being a viable option to weather the fall-out from the pandemic, there will not be a wave of foreclosures on the horizon. Homeowners have too much equity to walk away, they will sell and take their profits in order to recover if need be.

Prices have made a big run, but if you take interest rates and inflation into consideration, monthly payments are only up 26% since 2000 in King County and 34% in Snohomish County. That is parallel to raw home prices being up 249% since 2000 in King County and 272% in Snohomish County.

Financial indicators such as recovering jobs, deep homeowner equity, stringent lending practices, strong buyer demand, and low interest rates combat any inkling of a housing bubble. There are 600k Millennials in King County and 171k in Snohomish County that are coming of age and will want to buy a house.

Condominiums:
Condo sales stalled when the pandemic hit as people decided if they wanted to live in such density, and the downtown core suffered due to the shutdown. Since then, the stall started to move forward and condo prices are up 7% year-over-year in King County and 23% in Snohomish County. Condos provide a more affordable option, especially for first-time buyers, and single-level, maintenance-free living for retirees. Condos are predicted to appreciate 4% in King County in 2022 and 7% in Snohomish County.

Luxury Market:
2021 was the year that the $1M home sale price became more common. In 2021 there we 11k sales over $1M in King County compared to 7k in 2020. In Snohomish County, there were just shy of 2k sales over $1M in compared to 590 in 2020. The $1M price point may not be synonymous with the definition of luxury any longer. It is more so a depiction of affordability in our region. With that said, homes in the very high-end have had brisk movement and marked appreciation.

Overview:
The Work from Home lifestyle is real and has created lots of movement in the marketplace, especially towards the suburbs. This has caused an upward trajectory on price appreciation along with continued low interest rates. New listings outpaced 2020, but buyer demand gobbled up the inventory leaving us at the lowest levels we have ever seen as we start 2022. Price appreciation will continue but is predicted to decelerate after record-breaking levels in 2021.  Interest rates will creep up by the end of 2022 and inflation will improve as the supply chain recovers. Homeowner equity is at an all-time high and jobs are recovering, offsetting any big crash to the housing market. Affordability is our biggest roadblock as the landscape of the PNW has changed with tech jobs the heart of our renewed economy.

 
If you attended our Virtual Economic Forecast Event last week with Matthew Gardner, did you see the mountain of socks?! Matthew is a bit of a sock aficionado, and we usually give him a gift of some fun or funny socks at our yearly event. This year, we decided to collect socks and donate them in Matthew’s name to Beautiful Soles for local kids in need. I am happy to report we collected 523 pairs of socks and $125 amongst our brokers.
 

 

 
Thank you to everyone who gave to our Healthcare Worker Meal Drive in December! We raised $4,360 which enabled us to deliver meals and snacks to frontline workers at Providence in Everett, Swedish Edmonds, and UW Medicine Northwest Hospital. We partnered with We Got This Seattle, who helped us coordinate the restaurants we ordered from and set up our contacts at the hospitals.  I am so grateful for ALL of our local frontline workers who have been working so long and hard under the most difficult circumstances.
Events • Home Improvement • Matthew Gardner • Monthly Newsletters • Selling Homes • January 3, 2022

Is Your Home Windermere Ready?

by Jill Langer

 

 
How a home is prepared for the market has a direct economic effect on the results a seller will have in the marketplace. Making home updates to match today’s trends, repairing deferred maintenance items, deep cleaning, and home staging all help contribute to a higher return for home sellers and less time on the market. According to the National Association of Realtors, 82% of home buyers said that staging and proper home preparation helped them better visualize a property as their future home. Even in the brisk seller’s market we are currently experiencing, it has paid off for sellers to get their properties ready for market in order to reap the highest return in the quickest amount of time. This is why Windermere has partnered with Move Forward Financial and developed the Windermere Ready Loan.

The Windermere Ready Loan allows our home sellers to receive access to funds to make home improvements and merchandise their homes for the market with no upfront cost. Clients can borrow up to $50,000 as long as the Windermere Ready Loan and any other encumbrances on the property do not exceed 75% of the market value. With the majority of Puget Sound cities having experienced 15-25% in price appreciation over the last year or two, this loan-to-value ratio is very manageable.

Even better, this program does not require a costly appraisal, but just a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) from their Windermere broker approved by their office manager. Once that is done, loan approval can happen as fast as 2 business days and the loan can fund in 10 business days. In comparison to a cash-out refinance or home equity line of credit which both can take up to 60 days, the turnaround time is minimal.

 

 

 

The loan fee is 4% (based on the loan amount) and is due only once the subject property closes and requires no interest payments. There is a nominal $20 credit reporting fee and a $20 administrative fee collected at closing as well. Loans must fund within 60 days of approval and are due within 6 months of funding.

Clients do not need to present bids, only a pre-determined amount they want to borrow that does not eclipse the 75% loan-to-value amount. Clients can also choose their own contractors. I also have a list of preferred contractors that I can access to help concierge the home-preparation experience for my clients.  Like the example above, I can also advise on preferred finishes, colors, and trends that buyers desire to help you appeal to the largest audience.

I understand that getting a home ready to sell is not always an easy feat, but one worth the effort to get the most optimal outcome. If you are interested in learning more about this program, please reach out. I am happy to answer more questions, assist you in the process and help you get your home Windermere Ready in 2022!

 
*************************************************************************************************************************

 
Please join me for a very special virtual live event:

AN ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR 2022 & BEYOND
with Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

Wednesday, January 19, 2022
6:30pm – 8pm

Presentation from 6:30-7:30pm, Q&A to follow

Please RSVP by phone/text or email by January 14th, 2022
to receive an emailed event link prior to the event.
Buying Homes • Economic Forecasts & Trends • Gardner Reports • Matthew Gardner • Monthly Newsletters • Selling Homes • November 12, 2021

The Zillow Algorithm vs. The Human Algorithm – what is best for the consumer?

by Jill Langer
 

The recent news of Zillow’s plan to shut down their iBuyer program due to a $328 million loss in the third quarter has heads spinning in the real estate world and on Wall Street.  Sadly, Zillow plans to eliminate 25% of its workforce because of its decision to move away from the practice of purchasing and re-selling homes due to their mismanagement of property price evaluations.  “Fundamentally, we have been unable to predict the future pricing of homes to a level of accuracy that makes this a safe business to be in,” Zillow CEO Rich Barton.

This is a bold statement from a CEO who built their company on a computer algorithm that spits out a home value called, the Zestimate.  A Zestimate is an AVM (Automated Valuation Model).  The product of an automated valuation technology comes from analysis of public record data and computer decision logic combined to provide a calculated estimate of a probable selling price of a residential property.  An AVM generally uses a combination of two types of evaluation, a hedonic model and a repeat sales index.  The results of each are weighted, analyzed, and then reported as a final estimate of value based on a requested date.

Zillow’s iBuyer program sought to find eager home sellers who wanted a quick, no-nonsense sale.  They would present a cash offer based on their algorithm and close on a mutually agreed-upon date.  After closing, Zillow would turn these properties around with some improvements and bring them back to the market.  This is often labeled a “flip”.  The problem was Zillow overpaid for the majority of their purchases which proved that their computer-generated evaluation (AVM) lacks market accuracy.

On average, they re-sold these homes for $80,800 less than what they purchased them for.  Thorough market research that includes touring the subject and neighboring properties, seeking info from other brokers about the terms of recent sales and overall experience helps to determine accurate market conditions in comparison to the swirl of data used to establish the Zestimate.  Computers can’t do this type of in-depth research, nor do they have the instinct to predict shifts in the market, but humans (real estate brokers) can!

Often times when I am talking with potential sellers, their Zestimate (or other AVMs) come up in the overall conversation. I understand why, too. This is information that is relatively easy to access and gives the seller a starting point on the value of their home. Where an AVM can become dangerous is when a consumer thinks it’s the be-all, end-all. Even worse, when a consumer makes a major financial decision solely based on this information. According to Zillow, 39% of all Zestimates in the Seattle metro area are not within 5% of the actual value. In fact, they publish an accuracy report that you can access here.

In October, the median home price in the Seattle Metro area was $850,000. With 39% of all Zestimates not within 5% of the actual value, that is a beginning margin of error of $42,500! Further, they claim that 82% of their Zestimates are within 10% of the actual value, which is a marked difference – up to $85,000. Where AVMs are incomplete is that the basis of their formula is tax records, which in my experience are often inaccurate. Also, and most importantly, an AVM does not take into consideration the condition of the home, the neighborhood, and other environmental impacts such as school district, road noise, and unsightly neighboring homes, to name a few.

So why does the Zestimate exist? Zillow is a publicly-traded company (ZG) and their website is the vehicle to create profit. The Zestimate drives consumers to the website who are often dipping their toes in the pool to see what their home might be worth or searching available homes for sale. When a consumer is searching on Zillow’s website they are surrounded by real estate broker and mortgage broker ads on every page. These real estate brokers and mortgage brokers are paying for that advertising space, which is how Zillow makes its money and why there is a Zestimate. The Zestimate is not a public service, it is a widget to bring eyes to their advertising space which in turn, sells more ads to brokers looking for leads.

The moral of the story is this: use Zillow as one of the many tools in your real estate evaluation and search toolbox. Zillow provides a great starting point and contains a ton of information to whet your palate when embarking on a real estate endeavor. However, we live in a time of information overload and we are overstimulated at best. Nothing beats the evaluation and discernment of a knowledgeable and experienced real estate broker to help you determine accuracy, which will lead to the empowerment of clarity.  At Windermere, we like to call this, The Human Algorithm.

If you are curious about the value of your home in today’s market, please contact me. I can provide an annual real estate review of all of your real estate holdings, and can even dive deep into a complete comparative market analysis if you would find that helpful. It is my goal to help keep my clients informed and empower strong decisions.

Zillow® and Zestimate® are trademarks of Zillow, Inc.
 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist at Windermere and a sought-after expert on real estate, both locally and across the country. Every quarter, Matthew breaks down the real estate market by region and provides the Gardner Report; you can read this quarter’s full report here.

If you have any questions or curiosity about the current real estate market that you would like to discuss, please reach out. Are you curious about the value of your home, are you contemplating a move, or considering a new purchase? I can help! It is always my goal to help empower my clients to make strong financial decisions and to help them understand how real estate can positively affect their lifestyle.
Buying Homes • Economic Forecasts & Trends • Matthew Gardner • Monthly Newsletters • November 12, 2021

The Triangle of Buyer Clarity – Finding Buyer Success in a Seller’s Market

by Jill Langer
 

Embarking on a home purchase in a seller’s market can be intimidating, but it can be done. Long-term price growth confirms that owning a home is a key element to building household wealth. Home equity gained over time is typically the largest asset that contributes to a household’s net worth. Homeownership is not only an investment, but also provides shelter and fits the lifestyle needs of the owner. We have seen many lifestyle-driven moves during the pandemic highlighting the value of location and features for buyers. Also, with the advent of remote work, many buyers have been able to be more flexible in determining their top locations. This has contributed to stronger price growth in suburban and rural locations.

Buyers having a well-thought-out plan is paramount to finding success in today’s market. Partnering with their broker to assess their budget and how it relates to the location(s) and features they desire is the strategic formula that helps a buyer gain clarity. Buyer clarity is what leads a buyer to be able to make a sound decision to offer on a home. If a buyer is not clear, they will not be empowered to make a decision; in turn elongating the process and costing them more money. We have seen intense price growth since the beginning of the year illustrating the cost of waiting. In King County median price is up 16% year-over-year and up 21% in Snohomish County.

The tool that we use to help a buyer determine a productive search for their new home is The Triangle of Buyer Clarity. It is an expert tool for a buyer to help determine the parameters of their home search in order to save them time and money. The relationship between Price, Location, and Features/Condition is paramount in helping a buyer gain clarity and efficiency in their search.

Helping buyers stay focused on the reality of what their budget can afford them by applying The Triangle is an effective tool. For instance, if a buyer is set on a turn-key home that requires minimal updates, they may have to go up in price or further out in location, or both. The sides of The Triangle are often adjusted to make an uneven triangle, resulting in an effective home search and a successful purchase. An equilateral triangle is like a unicorn; buyers often have to adjust at least one side of the triangle to match the market with their ability to perform. Now here’s the geometry lesson: a buyer will often start the process with an equilateral triangle in mind, but will find success with either an isosceles (two equal sides) or a scalene (no equal sides) triangle. The moral of the geometry lesson is we have to be willing to compromise.

 

Understanding that compromise is OK and that it is actually a tool is when a buyer gains the clarity they need to successfully move forward. This is even further nuanced when two people are buying a home together; the adjustments must be done as a team. A skilled broker is well-versed in helping guide this process and making sure each participant is being heard and hearing each other. At the end of the day, real estate is a relationship business, and effectively curating this process is dependent on trust and care.

Helping buyers find their next home is one of the most joy-filled activities I have the honor of being a part of. It may appear simple, but it is not. The crucial conversations, contemplation, and planning that happen in order to find success are intentional. Taking the time upfront to analyze my buyers’ goals instead of just jumping in the car and starting to look at homes is a responsible part of my process that builds trust and effectively leads to success. It is my goal to help keep my clients well informed in order to empower thoughtful decisions. If you have any questions about the market or you’re ready to dive in, please reach out.

 
 

On this episode of “Monday with Matthew,” Matthew analyzes the latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index survey by Fannie Mae which helps us understand how buyers and sellers are feeling about the housing market.
Buying Homes • Economic Forecasts & Trends • Giving Back • Monthly Newsletters • Seahawks • Selling Homes • Windermere Foundation • September 29, 2021

Monthly Newsletter – Real Estate Market Recap

by Jill Langer

 
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the 2021 real estate market has been a head-turner! In the second half of 2020, once we started to emerge from the COVID lockdown, the real estate market started to bustle with activity. 2020 ended up being a robust real estate year driven by low interest rates and many COVID-influenced moves due to remote working and retirement. Who would have thought a global pandemic would have such a profound effect on the demand for real estate? Many people decided to retire and exit the state, many people entered our state and exited another, and a large portion of buyers who were no longer anchored by their commute followed their hearts to the suburbs and more rural locations.

When the calendar turned to 2021 the real estate market exploded! Inventory was depleted as 2020 did not provide the normal amount of new listings in tandem with a jump in demand. This combination created price escalations in 2021 that were beyond our wildest imagination. The price points for neighborhoods were re-established almost overnight with benchmark sales elevating the value proposition for the communities in which we live.

Seasonality has always had an effect on the market even in 2021. The first quarter of the year typically has the lowest amount of new listings as sellers make their way out of the short, dark days with soggy yards and projects on their to-do lists to prepare their properties for the spring market. The homes that sold in Q1 2021 saw above-normal gains over the list price. In fact, in Snohomish County, the average list-to-sale price ratio in March was 108%, and in King County 106%. As I mentioned earlier, almost overnight price appreciation established new home values for our communities.

Once the seasonal spring listings started to show themselves and buyers had additional selection, the price gains actually increased! The classic law of supply and demand relates the amount of supply against the amount of demand, and in turn provides a value. In the case of the 2021 spring market, the increase in supply actually was not enough to meet demand and put upward pressure on prices. Recorded sales from March to June saw the highest list-to-sale price ratios peaking at 110% on average in April in Snohomish County and at 108% in May in King County.

Since January the median price in Snohomish County has increased by 16% and in King County by 17%. Prices peaked in Snohomish County in June with the median price at $700,000 and in July in King County at $875,000. In August, both counties recorded prices 2% off the peak but were still sitting on top of a heap of price growth since the first of the year. Historically, markets will peak in the late spring, early summer as the ceiling of pricing starts to find itself. That appears to be where we are at. Although the figures this year have been intense and well above the norm, it is comforting to see typical seasonality still happening.

There is also this illusion that this type of market environment is easy. Yes, sales happen quickly and demand is high. I would be a fool to say that a sign in the yard and a feature on the internet couldn’t likely get a home sold. I must point out though that this market is nuanced and that obtaining the best results (top dollar and a smooth process) depends on how well all the steps are taken to prepare a property, price-position a property, and how carefully the negotiations and multiple offers are handled along the way by the broker. My office, Windermere North has continued to outperform the market in 2021 with shorter days on market and a higher list-to-sale price ratio than the market average. Check out our YTD comparison to the market averages to help understand how this elevated level of service makes a tangible difference for our clients.

As we head into fall and start to round out 2021, new homes that are coming to market are standing on the shoulders of the sales that took place earlier this year which created these increased home value levels. List-to-sale price ratios are starting to decrease as sellers are stair-stepping their pricing based on the freshly recorded home sales and the market is finding its peak for the year. Sellers that expect to stair-step and to escalate like homes did earlier in the year may find themselves disappointed and overpriced.

We are starting to see market times increase and expect a small surge in fall listings to help satisfy the buyer demand that remains. Low interest rates continue to provide buyers the flexibility to make moves with minimal debt service. As long as rates remain low, demand will continue. The good news is, not every home sale is a multiple-offer frenzy like we saw at the beginning of 2021. The new normal has established itself and buyers are becoming more savvy navigating this market. In my next newsletter, I will outline some expert buyer tools that have helped buyers succeed in this market.

The remainder of 2021 should complete a banner year in real estate. Sellers have made amazing returns and buyers are obtaining homes that better match their lifestyle goals with low debt service. COVID shook up how we value where we live. Remote work increased the value of our suburbs, retirees pushed prices in rural locations, and people having more time to reflect, shifted how they prioritize their homes’ features. Some folks even “got out” of Washington, but it wasn’t a mass exodus, as just as many are leaving other states for ours.

I see this last year and a half as a re-organization of our communities through housing, which comes with some positives and some negatives. Change can be uncomfortable, but change is certain. 2021 has been a year unlike any other! Seasonality, research, and relationships have been the stable markers that have helped me help my clients find success in this new environment and have helped me navigate some occasional choppy waters along the way. It is always my goal to help keep my clients well informed and empower strong decisions. Please reach out if you’d like to learn more about how the current market relates to your goals. If you know of anyone who needs real estate help, I would be honored to help take care of them as well.

 
Windermere Partners with the Seattle Seahawks
for Another Season to #TackleHomelessness
 

All of us at Windermere Real Estate are proud to kick off another season as the “Official Real Estate Company of the Seattle Seahawks.” Since 2016, we’ve partnered with the Seahawks to #TackleHomelessness by donating $100 for every Seahawks defensive tackle made in a home game. And for the third season in a row, the money raised will go to Mary’s Place, a non-profit organization dedicated to supporting homeless families in the greater Seattle area. Mary’s Place works to provide safe and inclusive shelter and services that support women, children, and families through their journey out of homelessness.

Mary’s Place’s mission and the work of the Windermere Foundation go hand-in hand. On Sunday, we were able to donate $6,300, which brought our #TackleHomelessness total to $166,600 adding to our donations over the past five seasons. We look forward to raising even more this year!

Go Hawks!
Buying Homes • Community • Economic Forecasts & Trends • Giving Back • Matthew Gardner • Monthly Newsletters • Seahawks • Selling Homes • Windermere Foundation • September 29, 2021

Monthly Newsletter – The National Housing Market & Seahawks Partnership

by Jill Langer

 

As I mentioned in my last newsletter, Windermere is empowered by the knowledge and research of our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner. Below is his latest monthly video report which touches on the latest numbers surrounding the national housing market.

Here are some key data points derived from the final recorded July home sales numbers:

  • For every home that was sold, there was an average of 4.5 offers.
  • 50% of homes that closed sold for over the list price.
  • 23% of home sales were all-cash purchases.
  • 89% of homes sold in the same month they were listed.
  • The average number of days on market was 17 days.

Listen to the 12-minute video below to gain some additional insight on national trends concerning new construction, supply and demand, total home sales year-over-year, price appreciation, and affordability.

In my next newsletter, I will report on final closed sale data from August 2021 for both King and Snohomish Counties. This will help you gain a better understanding of where the market is at on a hyper-local level year-to-date. 2021 has been a head-turner in the real estate market and staying well informed has been the edge to create success. It is always my goal to help keep my clients well-informed, so they are empowered to make strong decisions. Please reach out if you are curious about how today’s market relates to you.

 

 

 
Windermere is proud to partner with the Seattle Seahawks for the fifth season to help #TackleHomelessness. For every Seahawks home game defensive tackle, Windermere will donate $100 to Mary’s Place, whose mission is to help families on their journey out of homelessness. To date, we’ve raised $128,000 through our #TackleHomelessness campaign and we’re looking forward to raising even more this season for our friends at Mary’s Place!

 
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